Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:55:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
85 0x8583…3f3c sports 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,130 (+6%) realized +$1,343 · open −$213
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%44W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$284est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$584now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$684
7 days+$1,269
14 days+$73
30 days+$1,020
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$1,276
other 4% −$155
crypto 1% −$196
world 1% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +13.4% +2.6% 54% 54% +3.3%
≤30d 92 -3.9% -13.0% 48% 47% -4.5%
≤90d 92 -3.9% -13.0% 48% 47% -4.5%
all 92 -3.9% -13.0% 48% 47% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 47% -4.5%
10% -21.4% 46% -13.6%
15% -29.0% 45% -22.0%
20% -35.9% 43% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$205 vs −$167 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$584
Realized+$1,343
Unrealized−$213
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses44 / 48
Est. fees paid−$284
Open positions3
Markets (closed)92 / 95
History coverage20d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Over 61¢ 60¢ $503 $499 −$4 (-1%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Raphael Collignon 19¢ 16¢ $98 $85 −$13 (-13%)
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Ben Shelton 46¢ 0¢ $196 $0 −$196 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $299 +$210 +70%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $299 −$296 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $206 −$203 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $297 +$217 +73%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $299 +$193 +64%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $100 −$97 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $140 −$137 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $200 +$210 +105%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $95 +$138 +146%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $188 −$184 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $134 +$152 +114%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $497 +$334 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $281 −$278 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $353 +$425 +120%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $249 −$245 -99%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $94 −$92 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $118 +$179 +152%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$118 +118%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $125 −$123 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $146 +$180 +123%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $743 +$396 +53%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $196 −$192 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $299 −$296 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $120 −$118 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $201 +$220 +109%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $396 +$301 +76%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $190 −$187 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $100 +$389 +388%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $125 −$123 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $199 +$123 +62%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $388 −$381 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $199 −$196 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $85 +$103 +121%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $227 +$159 +70%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $198 +$326 +165%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $198 −$196 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $196 −$193 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $432 +$268 +62%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $267 +$166 +62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $198 −$194 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $275 −$270 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,290 +$1,042 +81%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $198 −$198 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 10 $247 +$48 +19%
Olimpia Milano vs. Pallacanestro Brescia Jun 10 $93 −$93 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 10 $198 −$198 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 10 $297 −$297 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 10 $199 −$199 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 10 $144 −$144 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 10 $399 −$399 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 19¢ $100 12m
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $509 20m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $509 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 58¢ $299 5h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 46¢ $199 7h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $299 14h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $206 15h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $297 18h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $492 19h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $299 22h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman BUY Hannah Klugman 16¢ $100 25h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 30¢ $140 28h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $95 38h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $200 38h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $188 39h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $287 39h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $134 40h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $831 40h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $497 41h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $281 42h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $778 42h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $150 45h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 54¢ $249 2d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 28¢ $94 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $203 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $118 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $218 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $100 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $125 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $325 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $583.79 · official $583.79 (match) · 171 history records