Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8582…959f sports 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$879 (-11%) realized −$878 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%48W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$246
7 days−$34
14 days+$183
30 days−$317
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$271
other 15% −$660
world 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +3.3% -6.5% 45% 45% -11.1%
≤30d 55 -2.3% -11.6% 45% 45% -18.0%
≤90d 117 -10.5% -19.0% 41% 41% -20.6%
all 117 -10.5% -19.0% 41% 41% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 41% -20.6%
10% -26.7% 41% -28.2%
15% -33.8% 38% -35.2%
20% -40.3% 38% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$65 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$878
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses48 / 69
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions2
Markets (closed)117 / 119
History coverage68d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 57¢ 60¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Belgium leading at halftime? Yes 52¢ 49¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 21 $88 −$87 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $56 +$33 +60%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 +$58 +114%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $87 −$86 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 +$40 +79%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 +$49 +97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $51 +$199 +388%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $93 +$107 +114%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $162 −$160 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $71 +$84 +119%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $51 +$40 +79%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $51 +$33 +64%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $60 +$42 +70%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$174 +340%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 +$36 +70%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $57 −$56 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$40 +79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$85 +167%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $51 +$35 +68%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 +$45 +89%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $128 +$74 +58%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$56 +109%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$22 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $70 −$69 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$42 +82%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $46 +$36 +78%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $51 +$49 +97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $83 +$63 +76%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Andorra vs. Liechtenstein: O/U 0.5 Jun 04 $51 +$34 +67%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $50 −$49 -98%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 4.5 Jun 02 $30 −$29 -98%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $51 −$50 -98%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $50 +$131 +262%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $51 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $51 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 8.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $88 3h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $51 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $56 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $51 39h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $51 46h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $51 46h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $87 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $51 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $51 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $93 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $81 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $81 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 45¢ $71 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $51 3d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Under 100¢ $91 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $83 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 31¢ $51 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 3d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 55¢ $51 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $51 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $51 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $51 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 58¢ $60 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.31 · official $99.31 (match) · 193 history records