Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:58:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
85 0x857f…96ec crypto 865 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,386 (-5%) realized −$1,116 · open −$270
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate77%652W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$40
14 days−$12
30 days−$288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$317
other 23% −$305
sports 22% −$496
world 11% −$433
finance 1% −$8
politics 1% −$103
culture 0% +$8
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +5.9% -4.2% 94% 33% -0.9%
≤30d 218 -6.3% -15.2% 79% 21% -13.5%
≤90d 492 -6.8% -15.7% 77% 24% -14.1%
all 852 -6.1% -15.1% 77% 26% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 26% -13.8%
10% -23.2% 13% -22.1%
15% -30.6% 8% -29.6%
20% -37.4% 6% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$17 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized−$1,116
Unrealized−$270
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses652 / 200
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions13
Markets (closed)852 / 865
History coverage252d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 852 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 62¢ 16¢ $315 $78 −$237 (-75%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? No 89¢ 88¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $35 $22 −$13 (-36%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? No 87¢ 86¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will "Avengers: Doomsday" make it into the IMDb Top 250? No 79¢ 74¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-12%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $5 −$3 (-34%)
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 14¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-48%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 34¢ 20¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will DeVante Hill be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? Yes 69¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 14¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 110 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2026 Action of the Year? Jun 28 $1 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 28 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 28 $60 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 28 $25 +$7 +29%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $22 +$6 +29%
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $22 +$4 +17%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $22 +$3 +16%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $13 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $30 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $20 +$1 +7%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $27 +$2 +8%
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 25 $13 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $19 +$1 +8%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 25 $25 +$3 +12%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $15 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1 $0 -1%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1 $0 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $22 +$1 +4%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $35 −$3 -9%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $38 +$7 +18%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? Jun 14 $77 −$60 -78%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $17 +$2 +11%
McDonald's CEO out by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $11 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $22 +$2 +10%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $17 +$5 +29%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $43 −$42 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $82 +$3 +4%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $21 +$2 +7%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $8 +$2 +25%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $15 +$2 +16%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 10 $20 −$18 -89%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -48%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 87¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? BUY No 89¢ $30 1h
Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2026 Action of the Year? SELL No 99¢ $1 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $51 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 64¢ $50 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY No 77¢ $25 35h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL No 100¢ $26 35h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY No 86¢ $22 41h
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY No 85¢ $22 41h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $22 41h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 99¢ $13 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Spain? BUY No 96¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 93¢ $20 2d
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 27¢ $20 3d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 United States? BUY No 92¢ $27 3d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY 9INE $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY 9INE $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 3d
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 89¢ $25 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 60¢ $15 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.39 · official $197.39 (match) · 2994 history records