Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
85 0x857e…5e3a crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$314 (+2%) realized +$292 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate67%22W / 11L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$467per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$122
sports 11% +$95
weather 6% +$2
politics 1% +$1
other 0% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 17 -1.9% -11.2% 53% 29% -7.4%
≤90d 24 +20.1% +8.7% 62% 25% -7.5%
all 33 +12.0% +1.3% 67% 21% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 21% -7.9%
10% -8.4% 15% -16.7%
15% -17.2% 12% -24.8%
20% -25.3% 12% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$41 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$1,139
Realized+$292
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses22 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage105d
Avg bet$467
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $1,106 $1,129 +$22 (+2%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Under 85¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 24 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 24 $31 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 24 $129 +$126 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 24 $311 +$292 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 24 $52 −$28 -54%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 24 $1,100 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 24 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 24 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 24 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 24 $88 −$85 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 24 $36 +$12 +33%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 23 $1,001 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 18-24? May 19 $178 −$1 -1%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins May 19 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 18? May 19 $1,000 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 18 $155 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? May 18 $1,001 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May? May 14 $948 −$24 -2%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 14 $16 +$82 +514%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 25? May 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 25 $1,105 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 02 $343 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $757 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 9-15? Mar 20 $336 +$7 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 9-15? Mar 15 $1,093 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $1,091 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $1,090 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $1,089 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 9? Mar 10 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 4? Mar 09 $373 +$3 +1%
Wizards vs. Magic Mar 09 $600 +$67 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $10 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY 29¢ $26 1h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 80¢ $604 16d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 16d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 17d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 81¢ $6 17d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $27 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $24 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 23d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $618 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 23d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $206 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,138.60 · official $1,163.60 · 99 history records