Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:14:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x857e…1ddc
crypto · 252 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$791 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$713 · open −$78
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$58
Realized−$713
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses154 / 96
Open positions2
Markets (closed)250 / 252
History coverage20d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 2 History 250 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days−$279
14 days−$279
30 days−$713
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $59 $57 −$2 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $112 $0 −$112 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $79 $0 −$79 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $133 $0 −$133 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $126 $0 −$126 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $106 +$94 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $43 −$42 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $147 −$144 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $131 +$69 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $39 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $72 −$71 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $46 +$54 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $23 +$7 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $150 +$50 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $57 +$23 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $66 +$34 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $78 +$22 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $34 −$33 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $124 +$76 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $58 −$56 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $94 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $68 +$32 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $75 +$25 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $35 +$15 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $66 −$64 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $97 +$15 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $65 −$35 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$8 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$49 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $108 +$92 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $56 −$54 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $85 −$69 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$7 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $46 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $211 +$89 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $112 +$64 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $50 −$20 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $35 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$4 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$19 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $34 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $42 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $121 +$26 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$788
other 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $78 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $48 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $58 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $43 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $79 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $32 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $36 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $71 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $32 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $28 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $14 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $15 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $28 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $44 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $18 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $34 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 -3.5% -12.7% 62% 56% -13.1%
≤30d 250 -6.5% -15.4% 62% 56% -13.8%
≤90d 250 -6.5% -15.4% 62% 56% -13.8%
all 250 -6.5% -15.4% 62% 56% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 56% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 44% -22.0%
15% -30.9% 34% -29.6%
20% -37.7% 24% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.50 · official $58.00 (match) · 861 history records