Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
85 0x857b…c02d weather 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 417d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$26 (+4%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$91
14 days+$91
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% +$25
world 28% $0
weather 28% +$1
crypto 4% +$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +173.1% +147.1% 50% 50% +33.1%
≤30d 2 +173.1% +147.1% 50% 50% +33.1%
≤90d 2 +173.1% +147.1% 50% 50% +33.1%
all 6 +43.4% +29.7% 50% 33% +8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.7% 33% +8.0%
10% +17.3% 17% -2.3%
15% +6.0% 17% -11.7%
20% -4.4% 17% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$4 · ×10.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.17 per $1 lost it wins $10.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

417d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage417d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$91 +346%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $167 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on June 4? Jun 04 $157 +$10 +6%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $193 +$29 +15%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? May 01 $50 −$4 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on April 28? Apr 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $118 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $167 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $167 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on June 4? SELL Yes 98¢ $167 379d
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on June 4? BUY Yes 92¢ $157 379d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 388d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 79¢ $49 414d
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 9¢ $47 414d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 80¢ $60 414d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 77¢ $63 414d
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 414d
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 9¢ $40 415d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 79¢ $50 415d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 78¢ $1 415d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 416d
Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on April 28? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 416d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records