trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +2.2% | -7.6% | 50% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 25% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 25% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 30 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 33% | 7% | -8.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.8% | 7% | -8.9% |
| 10% | -17.6% | 0% | -17.6% |
| 15% | -25.5% | 0% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -32.8% | 0% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 85¢ | $39 | $39 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 37¢ | 2¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-93%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 23 | $19 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 23 | $80 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 06 | $39 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 05 | $3 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 04 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 04 | $12 | −$1 | -6% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | May 29 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 28 | $44 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Rumble buy TikTok? | Jun 28 | $11 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? | May 14 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? | May 13 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec | May 12 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? | May 11 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Amazon buy TikTok? | May 11 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? | May 08 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? | May 08 | $3 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? | May 08 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City | May 08 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | May 08 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? | May 07 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May? | May 07 | $11 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele | May 06 | $11 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 06 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? | May 06 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 06 | $10 | +$1 | +11% |
| Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? | Apr 30 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 29 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Jumper airdrop in Q1 2025? | Apr 03 | $11 | +$2 | +20% |