Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:43:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
85 0x857a…bcbb other 320 markets active 2h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$101 (+2%) realized +$117 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%136W / 175L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$20
14 days+$26
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$135
crypto 31% −$3
sports 22% +$266
culture 5% −$43
world 5% +$20
politics 4% +$17
weather 0% −$1
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +16.8% +5.7% 56% 44% -0.9%
≤30d 38 -18.6% -26.4% 39% 37% -13.8%
≤90d 127 -5.0% -14.0% 33% 29% -12.2%
all 311 +4.8% -5.2% 44% 38% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 38% -7.3%
10% -14.3% 34% -16.2%
15% -22.6% 29% -24.3%
20% -30.1% 28% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$262
Realized+$117
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses136 / 175
Open positions9
Markets (closed)311 / 320
History coverage231d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 311 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 58¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $55 $44 −$11 (-19%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes 14¢ 7¢ $43 $21 −$22 (-51%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June? No 97¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? No 95¢ 93¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $51 +$4 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $43 +$7 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $8 +$12 +150%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $13 +$37 +285%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $26 +$24 +92%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $24 +$28 +121%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $29 +$21 +73%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $15 +$37 +245%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $4 +$6 +150%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $42 +$8 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 31 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $6 +$5 +75%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $7 +$4 +63%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $4 +$6 +133%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 23 $7 +$10 +138%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $4 +$7 +193%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $3 +$8 +222%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 8? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 8? May 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 6? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 10 $32 −$32 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $27 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $18 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $46 3d
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 41¢ $80 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $43 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $34 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June? BUY No 97¢ $10 6d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? BUY No 96¢ $10 6d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? BUY No 95¢ $10 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 7d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 7d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $56 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.62 · official $261.65 (match) · 934 history records