Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:41:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8579…185f sports 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,980 (-15%) realized −$3,966 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%19W / 17L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$714per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Fees−$360est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$3,657
14 days−$4,040
30 days−$4,040
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$2,388
other 19% −$1,665
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +19.9% +8.4% 58% 53% -32.9%
≤30d 36 -3.3% -12.5% 53% 44% -25.0%
≤90d 36 -3.3% -12.5% 53% 44% -25.0%
all 36 -3.3% -12.5% 53% 44% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 44% -25.0%
10% -20.9% 39% -32.2%
15% ← realistic here -28.5% 31% -38.7%
20% -35.5% 19% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$1,104) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$300 vs −$609 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,966
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$360
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage11d
Avg bet$714
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 2¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $1,788 +$46 +3%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $752 −$61 -8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,218 −$1,218 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,169 −$1,169 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,660 −$1,660 -100%
Will T1 qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 13 $239 −$239 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,509 +$15 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$2 +32%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $26 +$23 +89%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $2,010 +$699 +35%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $24 +$5 +20%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,142 −$1,140 -100%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 12 $1 +$4 +285%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $735 +$765 +104%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $455 +$690 +152%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,587 +$713 +45%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $149 +$33 +22%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $344 +$113 +33%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 2 Winn Jun 09 $321 +$30 +9%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $8 −$5 -61%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $218 +$2 +1%
Game Handicap: DK.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) Jun 09 $365 +$134 +37%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 09 $1,089 +$561 +52%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $886 −$664 -75%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $1,104 +$451 +41%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $2,497 +$1,049 +42%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 07 $450 −$449 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $433 +$366 +84%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $720 −$720 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $250 −$250 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $612 −$573 -94%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1,436 −$399 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 34¢ $45 11m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 34¢ $15 12m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 34¢ $18 12m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 34¢ $116 12m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 61¢ $201 13m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 34¢ $5 13m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 34¢ $34 14m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 34¢ $22 14m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $240 14m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 67¢ $114 19m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 61¢ $305 31m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 25¢ $122 34m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $1 39m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $57 39m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $25 39m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $11 39m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $1 39m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $10 39m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $13 39m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $92 39m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 64¢ $955 40m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 64¢ $5 40m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $255 47m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 60¢ $300 52m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 60¢ $34 52m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 60¢ $13 52m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 60¢ $180 54m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 60¢ $23 55m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 60¢ $18 55m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 60¢ $35 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.31 · official $0.31 (match) · 308 history records