Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
85 0x8579…a106 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$821 (+13%) realized +$800 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,267per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$3,103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 162d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% +$736
other 33% +$12
crypto 16% +$9
world 16% +$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +6.4% -3.7% 100% 0% -3.7%
≤30d 1 +6.4% -3.7% 100% 0% -3.7%
≤90d 1 +6.4% -3.7% 100% 0% -3.7%
all 2 +19.6% +8.2% 100% 50% +12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.2% 50% +12.8%
10% -2.2% 50% +2.0%
15% -11.6% 0% -7.9%
20% -20.3% 0% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$400 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$3,103
Realized+$800
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage162d
Avg bet$1,267
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $1,139 $1,134 −$5 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $995 $1,004 +$9 (+1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $948 $965 +$17 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 18 $995 +$64 +6%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Feb 20 $2,249 +$736 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $694 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $452 38h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $995 43d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $996 43d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $948 101d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? BUY No 75¢ $2,249 161d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,103.19 · official $3,103.19 (match) · 9 history records