Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:53:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x8575…87fe
other · 295 markets active 11h ago
0.0score
−$78,544 -38%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$92,152 · open −$31,412
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9,975
Realized−$92,152
Unrealized−$31,412
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses50 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$143
Open positions490
Markets (closed)111 / 295
History coverage10d
Avg bet$698
Trades / day320.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 490 History 111 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46,641
7 days−$61,835
14 days−$92,152
30 days−$92,152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $408 $407 −$0 (-0%)
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $407 $407 −$0 (-0%)
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? No 96¢ 100¢ $376 $391 +$15 (+4%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No 88¢ 86¢ $359 $349 −$10 (-3%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 54¢ 20¢ $853 $307 −$545 (-64%)
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 89¢ 97¢ $249 $270 +$21 (+8%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 49¢ 80¢ $164 $266 +$102 (+62%)
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 58¢ 81¢ $161 $227 +$66 (+41%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 4¢ 36¢ $18 $179 +$161 (+894%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 82¢ 81¢ $176 $173 −$3 (-2%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 48¢ 62¢ $121 $154 +$33 (+27%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 4¢ 47¢ $11 $149 +$138 (+1216%)
Will De'Aaron Fox win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 99¢ 100¢ $143 $144 +$1 (+1%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 58¢ 50¢ $162 $140 −$22 (-14%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $150 $131 −$19 (-12%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 82¢ 84¢ $126 $129 +$3 (+2%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $47 $129 +$82 (+173%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 97¢ $119 $118 −$1 (-1%)
Will June 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? No 39¢ 10¢ $429 $117 −$312 (-73%)
Will "Mortal Kombat II" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $116 $116 +$0 (+0%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? No 97¢ 99¢ $104 $105 +$2 (+2%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 54¢ 42¢ $133 $103 −$30 (-23%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? No 99¢ 98¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 23¢ 23¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? No 98¢ 99¢ $82 $83 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 5-10%? Jun 12 $0 +$4 +3101%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 12 $1 +$1 +129%
Will Xiaomi have the second highest estimated revenue for May 11–May 1 Jun 12 $1 −$4 -432%
Will DeepSeek have the second highest estimated revenue for May 11–May Jun 12 $1 −$4 -422%
Will xAI have the second highest estimated revenue for May 11–May 17, Jun 12 $1 −$4 -458%
Will Z.ai have the second highest estimated revenue for May 11–May 17, Jun 12 $1 −$4 -474%
Will MiniMax have the second highest estimated revenue for May 11–May Jun 12 $1 −$4 -474%
Will Vitality win IEM Atlanta 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$429 +158118%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Jun 12 $388 +$4 +1%
Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 11 $44 +$5 +12%
Will Mikel Arteta be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 11 $47 +$20 +43%
Will Andoni Iraola be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 11 $191 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $48,814 −$47,085 -96%
Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $15 $0 +3%
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $8 +$2 +19%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $8 +$2 +21%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $8 +$2 +21%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, Jun 09 $6 +$4 +66%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $1,012 −$848 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,694 −$1,380 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,537 −$1,223 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $431 −$387 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $447 −$385 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $426 +$16 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $452 −$383 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $771 −$457 -59%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $11 $0 +2%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $1,794 −$747 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $348 −$305 -88%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $841 −$741 -88%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1,694 −$1,487 -88%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $2,562 −$1,553 -61%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $1,054 +$209 +20%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 07 $961 −$751 -78%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 07 $995 −$555 -56%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $496 −$421 -85%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $11 $0 +2%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $277 −$219 -79%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $270 −$212 -78%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 06 $526 −$498 -95%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $849 −$787 -93%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 06 $115 +$6 +6%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $494 −$422 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $369 −$20 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $84 −$70 -83%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $861 −$484 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 56% −$77,910
other 35% −$45,348
sports 5% −$358
world 2% −$47
economics 1% −$102
culture 0% −$246
tech 0% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $7 10h
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $21 10h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $3 10h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY No 2¢ $1 10h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 21¢ $1 10h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 21¢ $1 10h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 21¢ $1 11h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 21¢ $1 11h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 21¢ $1 11h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 37¢ $6 11h
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $16 11h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY No 96¢ $15 11h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $12 11h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $3 11h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $4 11h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 69¢ $3 11h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $4 11h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $4 11h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $4 11h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 23¢ $1 11h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 72¢ $4 11h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY No 80¢ $6 11h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $4 11h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $4 11h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 30¢ $2 12h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 33¢ $2 12h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $22 12h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 38¢ $2 12h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 36¢ $2 12h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 20¢ $6 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +26.6% +14.5% 47% 17% -86.1%
≤30d 111 +12.6% +1.9% 45% 18% -87.0%
≤90d 111 +12.6% +1.9% 45% 18% -87.0%
all 111 +12.6% +1.9% 45% 18% -87.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover320.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.9% 18% -87.0%
10% -7.8% 12% -88.3%
15% ← realistic here -16.8% 10% -89.4%
20% -24.9% 9% -90.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,974.53 · official $10,022.26 (match) · 3500 history records