Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:52:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
85 0x8573…27b7 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$27 (+30%) realized +$28 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +93% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +74% what you keep after slip
Net edge+74%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$1
crypto 22% $0
sports 11% +$29
world 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+74.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +92.9% +74.5% 50% 50% +192.1%
≤30d 4 +92.9% +74.5% 50% 50% +192.1%
≤90d 4 +92.9% +74.5% 50% 50% +192.1%
all 4 +92.9% +74.5% 50% 50% +192.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +74.5% 50% +192.1%
10% +57.8% 50% +164.1%
15% +42.6% 50% +138.6%
20% +28.6% 50% +115.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +223% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +93% · $-wt +223% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$1 · ×14.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.62 per $1 lost it wins $14.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage5d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$11 +206%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$19 +365%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $5 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $24 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.58 · official $76.58 (match) · 10 history records