Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:34:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
85 0x8570…a720 crypto 99 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$266 (+9%) realized +$329 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%49W / 45L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$329
sports 25% −$25
other 15% −$54
weather 7% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 +14.0% +3.1% 52% 48% +2.3%
≤30d 94 +14.0% +3.1% 52% 48% +2.3%
≤90d 94 +14.0% +3.1% 52% 48% +2.3%
all 94 +14.0% +3.1% 52% 48% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.1% 48% +2.3%
10% ← realistic here -6.7% 44% -7.5%
15% -15.7% 43% -16.4%
20% -24.0% 40% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$20 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$329
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses49 / 45
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)94 / 99
History coverage7d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? Yes 42¢ 39¢ $45 $42 −$3 (-7%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $104 +$109 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -95%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 27 $43 −$43 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Erling Haaland: 2+ shots Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 27 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Norway vs. France: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 26 $27 +$25 +93%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $20 +$25 +124%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $42 +$44 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 26 $101 −$13 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$20 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$49 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $128 +$70 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 26 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 26 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? Jun 26 $16 +$30 +193%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$19 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 25 $10 +$15 +143%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$5 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $21 +$9 +40%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $18 −$17 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +57%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $9 −$9 -99%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $213 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 23m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 42¢ $46 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. France: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 51¢ $27 12h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 12h
Erling Haaland: 2+ shots BUY Yes 49¢ $51 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $88 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.24 · official $122.24 (match) · 205 history records