Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:49:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
85 0x856c…da72 crypto 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+2%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$43
crypto 18% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -15.5% -23.5% 38% 38% +9.4%
≤30d 8 -15.5% -23.5% 38% 38% +9.4%
≤90d 8 -15.5% -23.5% 38% 38% +9.4%
all 8 -15.5% -23.5% 38% 38% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 38% +9.4%
10% -30.8% 38% -1.0%
15% -37.5% 25% -10.6%
20% -43.6% 25% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$3 · ×7.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.22 per $1 lost it wins $4.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Jun 27 $170 +$43 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$9 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka SELL Karolina Muchova 100¢ $50 27m
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka SELL Karolina Muchova 76¢ $42 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka SELL Karolina Muchova 73¢ $121 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka BUY Karolina Muchova 63¢ $119 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka BUY Karolina Muchova 60¢ $25 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka BUY Karolina Muchova 59¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records