Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:57:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
85 0x856c…df2f crypto 1453 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (155 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$277 (+11%) realized +$277 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +402% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +287% what you keep after slip
Net edge+287%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%429W / 797L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day155.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$286
7 days+$361
14 days+$546
30 days+$739
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$561
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (155 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+354.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 453 +501.2% +443.9% 38% 38% +12.5%
≤30d 1226 +402.1% +354.3% 35% 34% -0.2%
≤90d 1226 +402.1% +354.3% 35% 34% -0.2%
all 1226 +402.1% +354.3% 35% 34% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover155.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +354.3% 34% -0.2%
10% ← realistic here +310.8% 33% -9.8%
15% +271.1% 32% -18.5%
20% +234.8% 31% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +402% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +324% → late +480% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$277
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses429 / 797
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1226 / 1453
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day155.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1226 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$14 +17546%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$14 +17546%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 27 $0 +$1 +964%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$5 +2680%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$12 +15223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$1 +610%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$7 +9225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $0 +$8 +11158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 27 $0 +$3 +1830%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$8 +10553%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 27 $0 +$4 +2596%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $0 +$1 +1615%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 27 $0 +$1 +1798%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 27 $0 +$8 +10596%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $0 +$6 +7946%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +670%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$3 +4232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $0 +$7 +9406%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$7 +9301%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $0 +$3 +2518%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $0 +$6 +8825%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$5 +6728%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 27 $0 +$6 +8241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$1 +1339%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$5 +7509%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $0 +$5 +7277%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $0 +$1 +1198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $0 +$5 +7277%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$1 +1390%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +730%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$5 +6918%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +565%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$3 +3895%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$4 +6661%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 27 $0 −$1 -769%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$5 +7582%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +355%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $0 +$4 +6344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 27 $0 +$4 +6344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$4 +5830%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $0 −$1 -1195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 27 $0 +$4 +5715%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 27 $0 +$4 +5788%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$4 +5788%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 27 $0 +$4 +5788%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 27 $0 +$2 +3619%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$2 +3908%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +437%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$3 +5496%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 27 $0 +$4 +5640%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.90 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records