Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x856b…d0f8 other 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$143 (-10%) realized −$143 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%14W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days−$356
14 days−$132
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$238
sports 43% +$79
crypto 6% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -9.2% -17.8% 32% 32% -42.3%
≤30d 37 +13.7% +2.9% 38% 38% -18.1%
≤90d 37 +13.7% +2.9% 38% 38% -18.1%
all 37 +13.7% +2.9% 38% 38% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 38% -18.1%
10% -7.0% 38% -25.9%
15% -16.0% 35% -33.1%
20% -24.2% 32% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$33 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$143
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses14 / 23
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage30d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 24 $47 +$35 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$13 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $59 −$3 -5%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $19 +$12 +60%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $42 −$42 -99%
Francisco Conceição: 1+ goals Jun 23 $33 +$11 +34%
Mousa Ta'mari: 1+ goals Jun 23 $54 −$53 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $171 −$169 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $81 +$76 +93%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $24 +$26 +105%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 +$67 +649%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 +$8 +159%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$43 +145%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $200 −$198 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $98 +$117 +118%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $62 −$61 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $130 +$62 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $38 +$92 +246%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $44 −$43 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$44 +427%
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Terence Atmane Jun 15 $9 +$30 +325%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $59 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $31 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 27m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL No 47¢ $56 29m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $59 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 59¢ $31 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 36¢ $19 2h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $42 10h
Francisco Conceição: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $33 22h
Mousa Ta'mari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $54 27h
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 27h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $171 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $157 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $81 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $50 5d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $24 5d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records