Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:42:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
85 0x856b…2b6d crypto 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$4 (+3%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate61%46W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% $0
sports 18% −$1
tech 18% +$1
other 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -6.8% -15.7% 71% 46% -26.0%
≤30d 28 -6.8% -15.7% 71% 46% -26.0%
≤90d 76 +19.5% +8.1% 61% 47% -9.2%
all 76 +19.5% +8.1% 61% 47% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.1% 47% -9.2%
10% -2.3% 42% -17.8%
15% -11.7% 37% -25.8%
20% -20.4% 32% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses46 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)76 / 79
History coverage69d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 +$1 +52%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +30%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 16 $1 +$3 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 14 $1 +$1 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 14 $1 +$1 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 14 $1 +$1 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 14 $1 +$3 +294%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 14 $1 +$1 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 13 $1 +$1 +139%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $1 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $1 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 30h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $1 30h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1 30h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $1 30h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $1 30h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 33h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $1 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 95¢ $1 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $1 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 69¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $1 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $1 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 93¢ $1 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $1 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 77¢ $1 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $1 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $9 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.97 · official $2.97 (match) · 166 history records