Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:24:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

85 0x8569…393d other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 194d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$4,584 (-41%) realized −$4,555 · open −$29

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip

Net edge-45%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%5W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$658per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$49est.

Kalshi-fit53%portable

Net worth$744now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$534

7 days−$2,716

14 days−$2,148

30 days−$4,444

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-42.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	-41.6%	-47.1%	33%	33%	-52.1%
≤30d	15	-36.6%	-42.7%	33%	33%	-48.2%
≤90d	15	-36.6%	-42.7%	33%	33%	-48.2%
all	15	-36.6%	-42.7%	33%	33%	-48.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-42.7%	33%	-48.2%
10%	-48.2%	33%	-53.2%
15%	-53.2%	27%	-57.7%
20%	-57.8%	20%	-61.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 72% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -37% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -64% → late -12% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$394 vs −$641 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.31 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage

Net worth$744

Realized−$4,555

Unrealized−$29

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses5 / 10

Est. fees paid−$49

Open positions2

Markets (closed)15 / 17

History coverage194d

Avg bet$658

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	66¢	$720	$684	−$36 (-5%)
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists	Yes	32¢	36¢	$53	$60	+$7 (+14%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul	Jun 21	$562	+$817	+145%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe	Jun 21	$237	−$235	-99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$165	+$73	+44%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$123	−$121	-98%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng	Jun 17	$819	−$804	-98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$619	+$202	+33%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$346	+$275	+79%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry	Jun 16	$91	−$91	-100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1?	Jun 16	$548	−$548	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Jun 16	$517	−$517	-100%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 4.5	Jun 16	$520	−$520	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Jun 16	$1,245	−$1,245	-100%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 09	$1,162	−$36	-3%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$1,159	+$604	+52%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10?	Jun 01	$2,295	−$2,295	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists	BUY Yes	32¢	$54	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$726	1h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul	SELL Francisco Cerundolo	100¢	$1,379	4h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul	BUY Francisco Cerundolo	40¢	$562	5h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe	BUY Taylor Fritz	69¢	$237	14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	98¢	$237	15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$165	16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$123	41h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng	BUY Qinwen Zheng	38¢	$819	4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$202	4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	92¢	$620	4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$619	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY	55¢	$346	5d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	70¢	$1,125	12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$252	12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$531	12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$463	12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$517	12d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Spurs	100¢	$1,763	12d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	65¢	$1,159	12d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	71¢	$1,162	13d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry	BUY Diane Parry	30¢	$91	20d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 4.5	BUY Over 4.5	50¢	$520	20d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1?	BUY Yes	70¢	$548	20d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10?	BUY Yes	59¢	$2,295	193d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $744.12 · official $744.12 (match) · 33 history records