Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:02:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
85 0x8569…3654 world 81 markets active 10h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate42%34W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$34
14 days+$17
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$11
other 18% +$2
politics 2% +$4
sports 2% −$2
finance 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.5% -5.4% 33% 17% -3.9%
≤30d 24 +0.1% -9.5% 29% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 28 +0.1% -9.5% 29% 4% -9.4%
all 80 +0.7% -8.9% 42% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 4% -9.4%
10% -17.6% 1% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses34 / 46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage464d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 52¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $143 +$33 +24%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $281 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $103 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $16 +$1 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $130 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $130 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 07 $130 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $264 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $433 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $298 −$8 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $90 −$8 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $359 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $5 $0 +3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $25 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $172 +$5 +3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $5 −$1 -19%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $343 −$11 -3%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $174 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $2,119 −$2 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $152 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $7 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $666 +$4 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 12 $27 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 11 $930 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 29 $932 −$2 -0%
Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5) Mar 18 $150 −$4 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $2 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $163 +$1 +1%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 26 $14 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +4%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $14 $0 +3%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 11 $2 $0 -9%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 10 $28 $0 -2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Pacers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? May 08 $14 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 4? May 08 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9? May 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $22 +$3 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 9h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 24h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 24h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $143 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $23 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $107 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $44 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $86 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $55 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $22 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $22 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $103 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $16 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $130 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $130 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $76 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $33 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.06 · official $176.00 (match) · 268 history records