Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:41:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8567…56a3 sports 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%21W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days−$74
14 days−$74
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -34.4% -40.6% 0% 0% -16.0%
≤30d 3 -34.4% -40.6% 0% 0% -16.0%
≤90d 8 -25.9% -33.0% 12% 0% -14.4%
all 58 -22.7% -30.1% 36% 34% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 34% -9.0%
10% -36.8% 34% -17.7%
15% -42.9% 34% -25.6%
20% -48.5% 31% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$11 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses21 / 37
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage468d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $873 −$4 -0%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 24 $172 −$67 -39%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $91 −$3 -3%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Stage May 19 $71 −$3 -4%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $70 $0 -0%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 19 $3 $0 -2%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $259 +$3 +1%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Nets vs. Nuggets: O/U 212.5 Jan 31 $80 +$60 +75%
Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5 Jan 31 $85 +$57 +67%
Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 224.5 Jan 31 $86 +$65 +76%
Rockets vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5 Jan 31 $85 +$70 +82%
Kings vs. 76ers: O/U 230.5 Jan 31 $85 +$75 +89%
Hornets vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5 Jan 30 $94 −$94 -100%
Pistons vs. Suns: O/U 216.5 Jan 30 $85 −$83 -98%
Hawks vs. Raptors Jan 29 $4 +$2 +67%
Timberwolves vs. Heat Jan 29 $6 +$5 +75%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jan 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Seahawks vs. 49ers Jan 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Panthers vs. Buccaneers Jan 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Flames vs. Sharks Jan 03 $5 +$6 +127%
Avalanche vs. Kraken Dec 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Capitals vs. Wild Dec 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Oilers vs. Penguins Dec 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ducks vs. Blue Jackets Dec 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Celtics vs. Magic Dec 17 $6 +$8 +138%
Suns vs. Clippers Dec 17 $8 +$13 +156%
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Nov 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Rockets vs. Bucks Nov 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Pacers vs. Nuggets Nov 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Bulls vs. Cavaliers Nov 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Falcons vs. 49ers Oct 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Packers vs. Cardinals Oct 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Commanders vs. Cowboys Oct 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Dodgers vs. Mariners Sep 28 $4 +$3 +85%
Royals vs. Athletics Sep 28 $5 +$5 +108%
Astros vs. Angels Sep 28 $5 +$6 +113%
Dodgers vs. Mariners Sep 28 $5 +$7 +138%
Rockies vs. Giants Sep 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Sep 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Hawks Sep 27 $5 +$9 +186%
Magic vs. Spurs Sep 27 $5 +$3 +61%
Stars vs. Jets Sep 27 $5 +$4 +82%
Marlins vs. Nationals Sep 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Red Sox vs. Angels Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Cubs vs. Cardinals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Mariners vs. Twins Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Rockies vs. Braves Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Phillies Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Angels vs. Orioles Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 59¢ $15 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 59¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 59¢ $135 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL 4ikibamboni 41¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 59¢ $153 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL 4ikibamboni 40¢ $103 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY 4ikibamboni 40¢ $103 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL 4ikibamboni 40¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY 4ikibamboni 40¢ $37 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY 4ikibamboni 40¢ $67 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL 4ikibamboni 40¢ $105 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY 4ikibamboni 40¢ $105 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL 4ikibamboni 39¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 60¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 60¢ $100 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 60¢ $36 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 60¢ $18 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 60¢ $155 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY 4ikibamboni 39¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 60¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 60¢ $151 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 60¢ $93 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 60¢ $15 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 60¢ $32 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 60¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 60¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 60¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 60¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Inner Circle 11¢ $24 4h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Inner Circle 11¢ $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records