Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:11:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x8565…0c43
sports · 688 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$110,119 -89%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$106,342 · open −$3,392
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20,186
Realized−$106,342
Unrealized−$3,392
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses317 / 592
Whale WR (big bets)18%
Est. fees paid−$167
Open positions35
Markets (closed)909 / 688
History coverage86d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day36.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 35 History 909 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$103,699
7 days−$101,238
14 days−$100,409
30 days−$96,106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 65¢ 60¢ $13,925 $12,741 −$1,183 (-8%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $5,897 $6,165 +$267 (+5%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $1,872 $844 −$1,028 (-55%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 12¢ 22¢ $62 $116 +$54 (+88%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 90¢ 90¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 7¢ 13¢ $19 $39 +$20 (+105%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage GenOne 54¢ 52¢ $40 $39 −$2 (-5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-28%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 26¢ 14¢ $44 $25 −$20 (-44%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $9 $17 +$8 (+93%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 20¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-34%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 17¢ 4¢ $28 $6 −$22 (-78%)
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Open Qualifier 2 Playoffs Mentality Monster 89¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+12%)
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-54%)
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-43%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $209 $4 −$205 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $350 $4 −$347 (-99%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $609 $3 −$606 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $142 $2 −$140 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $79 $2 −$78 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $2 −$48 (-97%)
Will Taqaddom Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $8 $1 −$6 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 12 $938 −$938 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 12 $710 −$710 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 12 $620 −$620 -100%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Chiefs vs. Broncos Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 16? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Solana reach $190 in November? Jun 12 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 12 $368 −$368 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 12 $503 −$503 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 12 $277 −$277 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 12 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in January 2026? Jun 12 $217 −$217 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 12 $185 −$185 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 12 $817 −$817 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 12 $645 −$645 -100%
Will Solana reach $250 in October? Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 16? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 12 $441 −$441 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 12 $431 −$431 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 12 $301 −$301 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 12 $370 −$370 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $387 −$387 -100%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 12 $330 −$330 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 12 $245 −$245 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dalby vs. Izagakhmaev (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 12 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 November 24-30? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Jun 12 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jun 12 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 12 $424 −$424 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 12 $553 −$553 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 12 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Jun 12 $424 −$424 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 12 $543 −$543 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 12 $597 −$597 -100%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Jun 12 $723 −$723 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 12 $580 −$580 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Jun 12 $462 −$462 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Jun 12 $813 −$813 -100%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in October? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 12 $431 −$431 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% −$5,092
tech 30% −$4,025
sports 16% +$608
culture 2% +$1,078
crypto 1% +$245
politics 0% −$33
world 0% +$17
weather 0% +$131
finance 0% −$170
economics 0% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,341 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 66¢ $127 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 66¢ $11 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,447 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 66¢ $11 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 11¢ $275 2m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 2m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 2m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 29¢ $5,481 2m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 2m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 3m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St BUY GenOne 54¢ $41 26m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 90¢ $90 46m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 50¢ $94 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 78¢ $15 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 77¢ $202 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 77¢ $155 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 77¢ $455 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 75¢ $708 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,069 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 47¢ $235 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 49¢ $11 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 49¢ $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 48¢ $78 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-40.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 349 -72.4% -75.0% 13% 11% -79.6%
≤30d 601 -42.1% -47.6% 34% 30% -64.6%
≤90d 909 -34.6% -40.8% 35% 31% -58.1%
all 909 -34.6% -40.8% 35% 31% -58.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.8% 31% -58.1%
10% ← realistic here -46.5% 23% -62.2%
15% -51.6% 15% -65.8%
20% -56.4% 10% -69.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,185.68 · official $20,185.68 (match) · 3500 history records