Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:31:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x8563…5e98
sports · 1486 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,547 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,495 · open −$52
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$159
Realized−$2,495
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1446 / 76
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1522 / 1486
History coverage8d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day298.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 4 History 1522 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,437
7 days−$2,481
14 days−$2,495
30 days−$2,495
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Hanwha Eagles 56¢ 48¢ $112 $96 −$15 (-14%)
Ilkley (Doubles): Swan/Vidmanova vs Brooks/Rajecki Brooks/Rajecki 99¢ 50¢ $74 $38 −$37 (-49%)
Stoiana vs. Naef: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Celine Naef 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 148.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Derry City FC vs. Bohemians Dublin FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Zhiyenbayeva vs. Huang: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Salford City FC 1 - 2 Grimsby Town FC? No 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Exact Score: CD Leganés 1 - 0 CD Mirandés? No 99¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: CA Grau 1 - 0 CD Moquegua? No 99¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: CD Leganés 1 - 2 Real Racing Club? No 50¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Grimsby Town FC win on 2026-05-15? No 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Over 99¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Total Kills Over/Under 23.5 in Game 2? Under 99¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Valorant: Fancy United vs Oasis Gaming (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Group C Oasis Gaming 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Wu vs. Giron: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Under 94¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Paraguay to score first vs. United States? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bolelli/Vavassori vs. Harrison/Skupski: Match O/U 23.5 Over 99¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Over 99¢ 0¢ $198 $0 −$198 (-100%)
Will SK Poltava win on 2026-05-01? Yes 80¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Gornes/Walkow vs. Barton/Vrbensky: Match O/U 21.5 Over 99¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Salford City FC vs. Grimsby Town FC end in a draw? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 148.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Salford City FC 1 - 2 Grimsby Town FC? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: CD Leganés 1 - 0 CD Mirandés? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: CA Grau 1 - 0 CD Moquegua? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: CD Leganés 1 - 2 Real Racing Club? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Grimsby Town FC win on 2026-05-15? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 23.5 in Game 2? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Fancy United vs Oasis Gaming (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Gro Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Wu vs. Giron: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bolelli/Vavassori vs. Harrison/Skupski: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SK Poltava win on 2026-05-01? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Gornes/Walkow vs. Barton/Vrbensky: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Salford City FC vs. Grimsby Town FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Venezia FC vs. Palermo FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds? Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Set Handicap: Prizmic (-2.5) vs Zheng (+2.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Yaneva vs. Pigato: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $99 −$99 -100%
Valorant: TrinitY vs Jade Lions - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: SSC Bari (-1.5) Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Once Upon A Team vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Map Handicap: OAS (-1.5) vs Fancy United (+1.5) Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Oeiras 4: Completed Match: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 13 $104 −$104 -100%
First Blood in Game 1? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $158 −$158 -100%
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Valorant: Fancy United vs Oasis Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Venezia FC (-1.5) Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Bonzi (+2.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Set Handicap: Trungelliti (-2.5) vs Jacquet (+2.5) Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Gornes/Walkow vs. Barton/Vrbensky: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: FPX (-1.5) vs Nova Esports (+1.5) Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Set Handicap: Machac (-2.5) vs Bergs (+2.5) Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Set Handicap: Mensik (-2.5) vs Droguet (+2.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Exact Score: Orgryte IS 1 - 2 IFK Goteborg? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Nova Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Ch Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Set Handicap: Halys (-2.5) vs Bellucci (+2.5) Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Gornes/Walkow vs. Barton/Vrbensky: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: SK Slavia Praha 0 - 3 AC Sparta Praha? Jun 13 $98 −$98 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 13.5 Jun 13 $198 −$198 -100%
Wu vs. Giron: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
US Catanzaro 1929 vs. SSC Bari: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Frantzen/Haase vs. Barrientos/Behar: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $148 −$148 -100%
Valorant: Fancy United vs Oasis Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Rodriguez vs. Kicker: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 94% −$1,008
other 6% +$3
world 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef BUY Celine Naef 99¢ $10 27m
Rodriguez vs. Kicker: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 55m
Stoiana vs. Naef: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 99¢ $15 1h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton BUY Harry Wendelken 99¢ $30 1h
Bellucci vs. Kukushkin: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $4 1h
Panna Udvardy vs. Katie Volynets: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 99¢ $2 1h
Boulter vs. Vekic: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 99¢ $13 1h
Panna Udvardy vs. Katie Volynets: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 99¢ $13 1h
Udvardy vs. Volynets: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 99¢ $13 1h
Udvardy vs. Volynets: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 99¢ $15 1h
Udvardy vs. Volynets: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 99¢ $15 1h
Jong vs. Valle: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $2 1h
Jong vs. Valle: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 99¢ $2 1h
Stoiana vs. Naef: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $13 1h
Cina vs. Daniel: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 99¢ $15 1h
Mannarino vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 98¢ $10 1h
Kovacevic vs. Mmoh: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $2 1h
Set 1 Winner: Udvardy vs Volynets BUY Volynets 99¢ $13 2h
Boulter vs. Vekic: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 99¢ $15 2h
Wendelken vs. Walton: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $2 2h
Wendelken vs. Walton: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $2 2h
Wendelken vs. Walton: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 99¢ $2 2h
Collignon vs. Dougaz: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 2h
Collignon vs. Dougaz: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 99¢ $15 2h
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova BUY Ashlyn Krueger 99¢ $30 2h
Sanchis vs. Boyer: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 2h
Landaluce vs. Huesler: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 99¢ $15 2h
Duckworth vs. Vukic: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $15 2h
Duckworth vs. Vukic: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 99¢ $15 2h
Marcinko vs. Ito: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $15 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1341 -2.5% -11.8% 94% 1% -13.8%
≤30d 1522 -2.1% -11.4% 95% 1% -13.3%
≤90d 1522 -2.1% -11.4% 95% 1% -13.3%
all 1522 -2.1% -11.4% 95% 1% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover298.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 1% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 0% -21.6%
15% -27.6% 0% -29.2%
20% -34.7% 0% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.41 · official $158.47 (match) · 3500 history records