Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8561…936e other 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,043 (-15%) realized −$1,044 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate29%29W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$174
14 days−$260
30 days−$488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$730
other 31% −$357
world 10% +$20
crypto 6% −$76
economics 0% −$14
culture 0% −$15
politics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-47.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -37.1% -43.1% 31% 6% -18.6%
≤30d 29 -32.2% -38.7% 38% 21% -22.0%
≤90d 87 -37.9% -43.8% 32% 23% -22.9%
all 100 -42.3% -47.8% 29% 21% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.8% 21% -25.3%
10% -52.8% 18% -32.5%
15% -57.4% 16% -39.0%
20% -61.5% 12% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$32 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1,044
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses29 / 71
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 108
History coverage492d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $101 −$69 -68%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 −$10 -49%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $105 −$2 -2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $98 +$7 +7%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $120 −$22 -18%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $203 −$84 -41%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $260 −$3 -1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $202 −$53 -26%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $243 +$23 +10%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $226 +$17 +7%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$36 +36%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $41 +$1 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 04 $333 −$37 -11%
1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 04 $49 −$49 -100%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 30 $206 −$118 -58%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 May 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 27 $99 +$47 +48%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 May 27 $194 +$64 +33%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 24 $162 −$160 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 24 $240 −$240 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 24 $201 +$34 +17%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 May 23 $140 +$94 +67%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 May 21 $87 +$53 +61%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $198 −$172 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 29 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 29 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Apr 22 $297 −$246 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 19 $48 −$27 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 19 $22 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 19 $71 −$30 -42%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Score Apr 19 $99 −$45 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 19 $3 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 19 $12 −$4 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 19 $11 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 19 $7 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 19 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 19 $18 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 19 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 19 $4 +$1 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 19 $4 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 27¢ $32 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 83¢ $101 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $10 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a dr BUY $1 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 22¢ $10 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 75¢ $37 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $10 46h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $104 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $105 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $105 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $98 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 60¢ $98 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $120 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 34¢ $119 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $203 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 47¢ $149 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $202 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 91¢ $257 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $260 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY $5 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $266 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 90¢ $243 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $226 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY $1 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AN BUY $5 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wil BUY $1 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wil BUY $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.83 · official $1.83 (match) · 264 history records