Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T06:51:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x855a…678b
world · 76 markets active 1d ago
4.5score
+$285 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$288 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized+$288
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses45 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 1 History 75 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 63¢ 57¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $101 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $93 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $581 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $92 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -61%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $279 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $222 +$2 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $104 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $186 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $80 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $230 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $323 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $4 $0 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $24 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $34 +$3 +8%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $93 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $159 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $104 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $101 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $202 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $2 $0 +12%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $93 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $4 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $92 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $32 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $90 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $7 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $166 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? May 20 $5 $0 +8%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will Auburn win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $224 +$60 +27%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 20 $7 −$1 -11%
Rockets vs. Thunder Mar 20 $14 −$10 -69%
Will the CDU/CSU win between 28% and 30% of the vote in the German ele Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? Mar 02 $11 −$1 -13%
Southern Indiana vs. UT Martin Feb 28 $141 −$141 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Feb 26 $139 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 58°F or higher on February 26? Feb 26 $160 +$2 +1%
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025? Feb 25 $160 $0 +0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Feb 25 $160 $0 +0%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17? Feb 19 $30 +$11 +37%
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be 49% or more on February 14? Feb 19 $53 +$17 +32%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Feb 18 $211 +$47 +22%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Feb 18 $29 +$1 +5%
Valparaiso vs. Evansville Feb 17 $150 +$114 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 57% +$2
other 14% +$90
sports 12% +$106
politics 9% +$64
weather 4% +$13
economics 3% $0
finance 1% +$3
crypto 1% +$11
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $101 33h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $45 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $47 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $93 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $92 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $92 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $85 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $67 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $13 2d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $27 3d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $27 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $103 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $103 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $94 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $94 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $38 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $38 5d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $103 5d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $103 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $46 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $88 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -5.0% -14.1% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 30 +61.9% +46.5% 47% 7% -9.4%
≤90d 30 +61.9% +46.5% 47% 7% -9.4%
all 75 +35.9% +23.0% 60% 32% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.0% 32% -4.7%
10% +11.2% 28% -13.8%
15% +0.5% 20% -22.1%
20% -9.4% 17% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.00 (match) · 310 history records