Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:05:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8559…c9f7 sports 719 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$232 (+4%) realized +$298 · open −$66
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%220W / 494L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days+$183
14 days+$323
30 days+$276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$470
other 36% +$159
crypto 3% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +18.7% +7.4% 57% 53% +0.7%
≤30d 137 +23.2% +11.5% 41% 39% -1.6%
≤90d 446 -18.8% -26.5% 29% 27% -13.6%
all 714 -16.2% -24.1% 31% 29% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 29% -14.1%
10% -31.4% 27% -22.4%
15% -38.0% 26% -29.9%
20% -44.1% 24% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized+$298
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses220 / 494
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions3
Markets (closed)714 / 719
History coverage139d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 714 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $70 $86 +$16 (+23%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $89 $61 −$28 (-32%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $54 $1 −$54 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 269 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $199 −$197 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $45 −$44 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $107 +$38 +36%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $41 +$38 +93%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $55 −$50 -92%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $19 +$25 +128%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $50 +$52 +105%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $22 +$47 +211%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 27 $35 −$34 -98%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $86 +$87 +101%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $139 +$47 +34%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$20 +99%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $27 +$20 +73%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $9 +$28 +307%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $275 +$26 +9%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $168 +$61 +36%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $18 −$1 -4%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $61 +$28 +46%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $29 −$29 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $44 +$52 +118%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $25 +$18 +71%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $19 +$33 +172%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $23 +$29 +124%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $101 +$42 +42%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $13 +$33 +250%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $9 +$14 +152%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$39 +383%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $88 +$25 +29%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 +$20 +113%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $24 −$17 -69%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $11 +$13 +119%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $39 +$15 +39%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -20%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 +$5 +224%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $31 +$26 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 58¢ $48 51m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 72¢ $151 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 30¢ $45 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $145 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 73¢ $107 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $78 5h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $41 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 43¢ $19 28h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 46h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $35 2d
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $15 2d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $12 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 49¢ $86 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $186 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $139 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $27 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $20 4d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 35¢ $25 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $300 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 91¢ $275 5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $25 5d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 52¢ $28 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $229 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.36 · official $147.56 (match) · 1627 history records