Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:45:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
85 0x8559…16f6 world 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 363d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$89 (+10%) realized +$164 · open −$75
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$68
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 96% +$85
other 4% +$6
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -24.0% -31.2% 50% 50% +7.7%
≤30d 3 +6.8% -3.4% 67% 67% +40.5%
≤90d 4 -17.7% -25.6% 50% 50% +28.7%
all 14 +10.3% -0.2% 57% 50% +9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 50% +9.6%
10% -9.7% 43% -0.9%
15% -18.5% 36% -10.5%
20% -26.5% 36% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% too few recent
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$17 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

363d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$164
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage363d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Yes $12 $7 −$5 (-43%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 34¢ $70 $1 −$70 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $90 +$62 +68%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $12 −$11 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $110 −$9 -8%
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $157 −$55 -35%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $53 +$53 +100%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 28 $118 +$34 +29%
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $105 +$13 +12%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $50 +$75 +151%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? Jan 01 $10 $0 +4%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31? Oct 11 $14 +$19 +133%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Sep 29 $30 −$21 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 3h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $62 13d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? SELL Yes $1 61d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 68d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $8 70d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 70d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 70d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 70d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $42 70d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 103d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 103d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 103d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 103d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $30 104d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $30 104d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $10 104d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $60 104d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL No $0 104d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY No 23¢ $10 104d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL Yes 77¢ $101 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up $1 106d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 77¢ $100 109d
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? BUY No $1 111d
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? BUY No $2 111d
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? BUY No $2 111d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 111d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 50¢ $53 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.47 · official $7.47 (match) · 53 history records