Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:35:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
85 0x8558…8615 sports 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$316 (+13%) realized +$315 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate69%24W / 11L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day40.2pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$52
other 20% +$211
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +7.8% -2.5% 69% 34% +0.4%
≤30d 35 +7.8% -2.5% 69% 34% +0.4%
≤90d 35 +7.8% -2.5% 69% 34% +0.4%
all 35 +7.8% -2.5% 69% 34% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.5% 34% +0.4%
10% ← realistic here -11.8% 17% -9.2%
15% -20.4% 6% -17.9%
20% -28.2% 6% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$11 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.08 per $1 lost it wins $3.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$315
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses24 / 11
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage3d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day40.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Dallas Wings 91¢ 100¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $57 +$7 +13%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) Jun 23 $11 −$2 -20%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $12 −$4 -35%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $329 +$220 +67%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 22 $90 +$1 +1%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 22 $5 −$1 -16%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Matej Dodig vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Jun 22 $192 +$13 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $162 −$10 -6%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $181 −$53 -30%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $212 +$10 +5%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 22 $8 $0 +6%
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 22 $83 +$10 +12%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Edas Butvilas vs Moez Echargui Jun 22 $51 +$5 +11%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $12 +$1 +8%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Chidekh vs Aziz Dougaz Jun 22 $11 +$1 +6%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $76 −$10 -14%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $100 +$33 +33%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $8 +$8 +98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $95 +$8 +8%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $96 +$21 +22%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $2 $0 -13%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $64 +$19 +29%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $54 +$11 +21%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $2 $0 +10%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $61 +$4 +7%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 21 $43 +$4 +9%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $11 +$2 +21%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $8 +$2 +30%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $11 −$2 -16%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $10 +$3 +30%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu Jun 20 $80 −$1 -2%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $25 +$1 +3%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $17 $0 +3%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $9 −$1 -15%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $182 −$41 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Dallas Wings 91¢ $12 21m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Dallas Wings 58¢ $36 26m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Dallas Wings 51¢ $32 26m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Dallas Wings 70¢ $7 29m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Dallas Wings 61¢ $6 29m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Dallas Wings 50¢ $3 35m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Dallas Wings 69¢ $4 35m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Dallas Wings 68¢ $4 35m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Dallas Wings 67¢ $4 35m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Dallas Wings 67¢ $4 35m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Dallas Wings 67¢ $4 35m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Dallas Wings 65¢ $4 36m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Dallas Wings 65¢ $22 36m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Dallas Wings 65¢ $26 36m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Dallas Wings 64¢ $22 36m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Dallas Wings 47¢ $2 48m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Dallas Wings 43¢ $2 48m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 67¢ $0 51m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 61¢ $30 51m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 50¢ $25 52m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Cleveland Guardians 69¢ $30 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 50¢ $22 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Cleveland Guardians 44¢ $0 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Cleveland Guardians 58¢ $7 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Cleveland Guardians 45¢ $28 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 46¢ $35 2h
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) SELL Chicago White Sox 38¢ $6 2h
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) SELL Chicago White Sox 36¢ $3 2h
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 45¢ $11 2h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 43¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.90 · official $12.90 (match) · 136 history records