Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:14:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8551…1a3b crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%53W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$15
politics 18% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 3% -9.2%
≤30d 56 -1.8% -11.2% 95% 2% -11.0%
≤90d 56 -1.8% -11.2% 95% 2% -11.0%
all 56 -1.8% -11.2% 95% 2% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 2% -11.0%
10% -19.7% 0% -19.5%
15% -27.4% 0% -27.3%
20% -34.5% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$14 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses53 / 3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)56 / 63
History coverage10d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $14 +$2 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 06 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 06 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 06 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 06 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $15 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $15 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $15 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 13h
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele BUY No 95¢ $20 9d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele BUY No 98¢ $20 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.55 · official $141.55 (match) · 119 history records