Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8550…95af crypto 334 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$38 (-1%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate56%188W / 146L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$197
sports 2% +$33
world 0% −$4
weather 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -14.0% -22.2% 75% 50% -17.4%
≤30d 45 -12.3% -20.6% 62% 47% -16.2%
≤90d 334 -9.1% -17.7% 56% 41% -12.1%
all 334 -9.1% -17.7% 56% 41% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 41% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 31% -20.5%
15% -32.8% 20% -28.2%
20% -39.4% 13% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses188 / 146
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)334 / 334
History coverage53d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 334 Trades
no open positions (62 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 07 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 06 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 06 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 06 $11 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 06 $15 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 06 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 22 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 21 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 20 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 20 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 19 $20 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 19 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 19 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 18 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 18 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 18 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 18 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 18 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 18 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 18 $12 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 18 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 18 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 18 $12 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 17 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 17 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 17 $8 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 17 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 17 $4 −$2 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $11 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 21d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 100¢ $18 21d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 54¢ $10 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1545 history records