Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:42:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x854f…d282 crypto 820 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d only
✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$871 (-5%) realized −$871 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate86%705W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day95.7pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$164
14 days−$370
30 days−$289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$241
other 8% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +119.0% +98.1% 26% 16% -15.8%
≤30d 819 +4.0% -5.9% 86% 15% -11.2%
≤90d 819 +4.0% -5.9% 86% 15% -11.2%
all 819 +4.0% -5.9% 86% 15% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 15% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 2% -19.7%
15% -23.1% 1% -27.5%
20% -30.7% 1% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$871
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses705 / 114
Open positions1
Markets (closed)819 / 820
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day95.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 819 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Up 52¢ 88¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+69%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Down 53¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $299 −$27 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $55 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 13 $38 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $137 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $64 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $95 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET Jun 11 $156 −$12 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $126 +$17 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $81 −$13 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $373 −$9 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $158 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $797 −$95 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $238 −$8 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $17 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $185 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7PM ET Jun 10 $56 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6PM ET Jun 09 $36 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3PM ET Jun 09 $19 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET Jun 09 $58 −$9 -15%
HYPE Up or Down - June 4, 7PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$4 -24%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 7PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$12 -61%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12AM ET Jun 09 $43 −$5 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7PM ET Jun 07 $32 −$1 -3%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 3PM ET Jun 05 $16 −$7 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3PM ET Jun 05 $17 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 3PM ET Jun 05 $32 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3PM ET Jun 05 $33 −$23 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12AM ET Jun 05 $34 −$10 -28%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 12AM ET Jun 05 $37 −$16 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12AM ET Jun 05 $29 −$2 -8%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 9PM ET Jun 05 $36 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9PM ET Jun 05 $114 −$12 -11%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 9PM ET Jun 05 $104 −$10 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9PM ET Jun 05 $117 −$10 -8%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 7PM ET Jun 04 $21 −$15 -71%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 7PM ET Jun 04 $12 −$2 -13%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 7PM ET Jun 04 $9 −$1 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $12 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $7 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $18 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $21 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.67 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records