Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:21:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
85 0x854e…39cb other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$3 (+9%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$2
sports 16% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +25.0% +13.1% 83% 50% +5.7%
≤30d 6 +25.0% +13.1% 83% 50% +5.7%
≤90d 6 +25.0% +13.1% 83% 50% +5.7%
all 6 +25.0% +13.1% 83% 50% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.1% 50% +5.7%
10% +2.2% 50% -4.4%
15% -7.6% 33% -13.7%
20% -16.7% 17% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.93 per $1 lost it wins $4.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage4d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $9 13m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $8 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 93¢ $6 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 24h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 26h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 36h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.46 · official $8.46 (match) · 13 history records