Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:56:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x854c…01e2 sports 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$728 (-15%) realized −$842 · open +$114
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate40%32W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days+$116
14 days+$116
30 days+$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$79
sports 25% −$104
finance 12% +$42
politics 10% −$25
crypto 6% −$21
tech 4% −$201
economics 3% −$137
culture 2% −$76
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +269.2% +234.0% 50% 50% +132.7%
≤30d 2 +269.2% +234.0% 50% 50% +132.7%
≤90d 2 +269.2% +234.0% 50% 50% +132.7%
all 81 -26.9% -33.9% 40% 28% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.9% 28% -20.6%
10% -40.2% 25% -28.2%
15% -46.0% 17% -35.1%
20% -51.3% 15% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +157% too few recent
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$31 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$842
Unrealized+$114
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses32 / 49
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)81 / 84
History coverage236d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-2.5) Iraq 44¢ $0 $58 +$58 (+0%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Austria 56¢ $0 $56 +$56 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (- Jun 22 $26 +$164 +638%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on January 17? Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Feb 02 $70 +$60 +85%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Feb 01 $176 +$5 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 23 $111 +$65 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 23 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 15? Jan 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 12? Jan 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 7? Jan 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 04 $0 $0 +72%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 04 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Jan 04 $18 +$2 +10%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 04 $122 +$3 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Dec 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) Dec 14 $76 +$24 +32%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Dec 13 $18 +$32 +178%
Will Team Spirit win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Dec 13 $70 +$69 +99%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Dec 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 13 $201 −$201 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) beat quarterly earnings? Dec 10 $26 +$24 +96%
Will Dr ‘Aisake Valu Eke be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the Dec 09 $90 −$25 -28%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-7 be between 14 Dec 09 $38 +$12 +30%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Dec 08 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Imperial (BO1) Dec 08 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs 3DMAX (BO1) Dec 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NIP (BO3) Dec 08 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming (BO1) Dec 08 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs TYLOO (BO1) Dec 08 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Liquid (BO3) Dec 01 $44 +$16 +35%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs B8 (BO1) Nov 30 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FaZe (BO1) Nov 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs M80 (BO1) Nov 30 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs TYLOO (BO1) Nov 30 $47 +$73 +156%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs fnatic (BO1) Nov 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will more people travel on Thanksgiving than last year? Nov 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NIP (BO1) Nov 29 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Imperial (BO3) Nov 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Deere (DE) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will HP (HPQ) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Urban Outfitters (URBN) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Burlington Stores (BURL) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 26 $85 +$15 +18%
Will Analog Devices (ADI) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 26 $98 +$6 +6%
Will Best Buy (BBY) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 26 $240 +$33 +14%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs Fluxo (BO3) Nov 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Rare Atom (BO3) Nov 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: F BUY 15¢ $26 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 45¢ $59 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $61 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 40¢ $16 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 40¢ $4 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 40¢ $6 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 40¢ $13 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 40¢ $9 28h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (- BUY 13¢ $26 29h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B SELL NRG 12¢ $6 141d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B SELL NRG 12¢ $2 141d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B SELL NRG 12¢ $3 141d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B SELL NRG 12¢ $9 141d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B SELL NRG 12¢ $1 141d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $23 141d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $1 141d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $6 141d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $27 141d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $14 141d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B BUY NRG $21 141d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 BUY No 97¢ $176 150d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 SELL No 100¢ $176 150d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 BUY No 63¢ $111 150d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 BUY No 99¢ $109 151d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on January 17? BUY Yes $2 156d
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 12? BUY Yes $6 168d
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 12? BUY Yes $5 168d
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 12? BUY Yes $0 168d
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 12? BUY Yes $1 168d
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 12? BUY Yes $1 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.34 · official $139.35 · 236 history records