Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:53:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
85 0x854a…cdac other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$6 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate68%23W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$36
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% $0
sports 14% +$5
crypto 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +0.3% -9.2% 79% 46% +0.1%
≤30d 34 -9.7% -18.3% 68% 41% -8.6%
≤90d 34 -9.7% -18.3% 68% 41% -8.6%
all 34 -9.7% -18.3% 68% 41% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 41% -8.6%
10% -26.1% 29% -17.4%
15% -33.3% 21% -25.3%
20% -39.8% 9% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses23 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)34 / 41
History coverage11d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Yes 41¢ 41¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Yes 24¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $40 +$2 +4%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $29 +$1 +4%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $25 +$17 +67%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $12 +$2 +17%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $1 $0 +11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$23 -92%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $33 +$4 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 +$9 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $15 +$7 +46%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $12 +$1 +9%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 +$1 +8%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3 −$2 -66%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 +$3 +23%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3 −$1 -35%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 +$2 +16%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $29 +$11 +38%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 +$2 +8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $1 53m
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $1 53m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 54m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 54m
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 56m
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 96¢ $40 1h
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $30 17h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $29 18h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $1 25h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $1 25h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $42 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $25 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $23 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 90¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $12 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $33 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $1 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.48 · official $48.48 (match) · 83 history records