Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:05:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x854a…5e9e crypto 105 markets active 0h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21,981 (-15%) realized −$22,631 · open +$650
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%50W / 51L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,439per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$1,367est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$7,289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$861
7 days−$5,989
14 days−$5,982
30 days−$25,325
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$12,170
other 20% −$9,129
crypto 7% −$945
world 0% −$230
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -14.3% -22.4% 50% 38% -48.6%
≤30d 82 -16.7% -24.7% 50% 35% -52.6%
≤90d 99 -16.5% -24.5% 51% 38% -24.0%
all 101 -18.2% -26.0% 50% 38% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 38% -24.1%
10% -33.1% 28% -31.4%
15% -39.5% 23% -38.0%
20% -45.5% 12% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$494 vs −$938 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$7,289
Realized−$22,631
Unrealized+$650
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses50 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$1,367
Open positions4
Markets (closed)101 / 105
History coverage158d
Avg bet$1,439
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $5,000 $4,970 −$30 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET Down 88¢ 100¢ $1,440 $1,634 +$193 (+13%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 0¢ 40¢ $0 $683 +$683 (+0%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes 52¢ 51¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET Jun 23 $2,285 +$320 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET Jun 23 $695 −$40 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8PM ET Jun 23 $383 −$376 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7PM ET Jun 22 $794 −$766 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET Jun 22 $230 +$79 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET Jun 22 $464 +$180 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET Jun 22 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET Jun 22 $387 +$115 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET Jun 22 $259 +$19 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET Jun 22 $28 +$55 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET Jun 22 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET Jun 22 $17 +$13 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET Jun 22 $18 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5AM ET Jun 22 $50 −$48 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET Jun 22 $32 −$10 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1AM ET Jun 22 $13 +$12 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12AM ET Jun 22 $99 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET Jun 21 $203 −$124 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2PM ET Jun 21 $127 +$81 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET Jun 21 $326 −$156 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3PM ET Jun 20 $148 +$29 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET Jun 20 $227 −$216 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET Jun 20 $513 +$321 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET Jun 20 $348 −$276 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9AM ET Jun 20 $163 −$76 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET Jun 20 $126 −$32 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET Jun 20 $89 −$47 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET Jun 20 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET Jun 20 $282 +$154 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET Jun 20 $24 +$25 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET Jun 20 $33 +$13 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10PM ET Jun 20 $127 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET Jun 19 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET Jun 19 $17 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$5 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET Jun 19 $4 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 16m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $5,025 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $158 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $61 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $12 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $19 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $190 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $24 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $217 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $15 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $22 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $201 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $36 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $87 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $60 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $169 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $65 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $116 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $133 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $122 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $84 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,288.51 · official $7,288.51 (match) · 706 history records