Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8549…028c other 103 markets active 6d ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days+$3
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$8
politics 22% −$4
world 15% −$8
sports 11% +$7
economics 7% −$1
finance 5% −$2
crypto 3% −$3
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -9.0% -17.6% 0% 0% -17.6%
≤30d 14 +141.5% +118.5% 14% 7% -10.6%
≤90d 73 +26.2% +14.2% 3% 1% -9.7%
all 101 +18.5% +7.3% 2% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.3% 1% -9.7%
10% -3.0% 1% -18.4%
15% -12.4% 1% -26.2%
20% -21.0% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$0 · ×15.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)101 / 103
History coverage90d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 13¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $51 −$5 -9%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $102 +$9 +9%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $31 $0 -1%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $35 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $5 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $61 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 01 $41 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $20 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 12 $40 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 09 $1 $0 -6%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Cameron Norrie Apr 28 $2 $0 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $47 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $1 $0 -4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $480 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $2 $0 -2%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $59 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $51 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 24 $40 $0 -1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $6 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $130 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 22 $4 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 21 $1 $0 -15%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $380 −$1 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $15 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $73 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $307 −$1 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $534 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 06 $731 −$1 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 06 $90 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 06 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $90 $0 -0%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 05 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 05 $1,702 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 04 $50 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $60 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 03 $601 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 31¢ $14 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $18 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 27¢ $8 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 30¢ $8 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $11 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 32¢ $11 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $14 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $13 6d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes $0 12d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $2 12d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $23 12d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 48¢ $20 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 52¢ $21 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 70¢ $20 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 70¢ $1 13d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 21¢ $7 13d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $16 13d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $9 13d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 13d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $9 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 64¢ $19 13d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 86¢ $34 13d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 88¢ $35 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 90¢ $36 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY No 21¢ $1 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.30 · official $0.00 (match) · 1119 history records