Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
85 0x8549…33b0 other 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$28 (+12%) realized +$23 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$50
sports 31% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +45.8% +31.9% 100% 100% +32.6%
≤30d 2 +45.8% +31.9% 100% 100% +32.6%
≤90d 2 +45.8% +31.9% 100% 100% +32.6%
all 2 +45.8% +31.9% 100% 100% +32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.9% 100% +32.6%
10% +19.3% 100% +20.0%
15% +7.8% 100% +8.4%
20% -2.8% 0% -2.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 52¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 86¢ $22 $27 +$5 (+22%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 29¢ 28¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $39 +$16 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $59 +$29 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $47 27m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $23 27m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $22 28m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $39 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $59 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.65 · official $146.66 (match) · 10 history records