Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:39:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8546…4464 crypto 325 markets active 0h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,754 (-12%) realized −$1,740 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%101W / 222L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days−$63
14 days−$63
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,070
other 1% −$7
politics 0% −$55
world 0% −$15
sports 0% −$4
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -16.9% -24.8% 32% 32% -15.3%
≤30d 22 -16.9% -24.8% 32% 32% -15.3%
≤90d 106 -45.0% -50.2% 23% 21% -28.7%
all 323 -16.7% -24.6% 31% 29% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 29% -22.3%
10% -31.8% 26% -29.8%
15% -38.4% 20% -36.5%
20% -44.5% 18% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$28 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$1,740
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses101 / 222
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)323 / 325
History coverage121d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 323 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 4¢ 4¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $57 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$20 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $84 −$44 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $82 +$28 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$8 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $69 −$45 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $101 −$72 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $78 −$12 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$7 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $72 +$25 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $53 +$149 +284%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $89 +$20 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $81 +$61 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 11 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 11 $103 −$30 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 11 $230 +$250 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1PM ET May 11 $48 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11AM ET May 11 $11 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 11 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 11 $8 +$9 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 11 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 11 $47 −$19 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 11 $68 −$26 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 11 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 11 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $44 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $30 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $36 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $28 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $19 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $13 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $84 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.27 · official $71.49 · 1302 history records