Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:01:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x8545…c5c4
crypto · 467 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3,246 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,246 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$142
Realized−$3,246
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses251 / 648
Open positions1
Markets (closed)899 / 467
History coverage2d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1910.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 899 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,246
7 days−$3,246
14 days−$3,246
30 days−$3,246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 65¢ 100¢ $56 $87 +$31 (+54%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 51¢ 100¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+96%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 61¢ 62¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 38¢ 38¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 51¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+96%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 64¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+56%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 42¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+138%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$641
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $12 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $8 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $19 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $18 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $14 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $9 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $9 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $14 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $12 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $18 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $14 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $7 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $11 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $14 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $12 15m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-52.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 899 -47.0% -52.1% 28% 19% -22.7%
≤30d 899 -47.0% -52.1% 28% 19% -22.7%
≤90d 899 -47.0% -52.1% 28% 19% -22.7%
all 899 -47.0% -52.1% 28% 19% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1910.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -52.1% 19% -22.7%
10% ← realistic here -56.6% 12% -30.1%
15% -60.8% 9% -36.9%
20% -64.7% 7% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.28 · official $141.58 (match) · 3500 history records