Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
85 0x8545…1fbc crypto 286 markets active 1h ago coverage 619d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$94 (+2%) realized +$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate58%165W / 119L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% +$34
other 31% +$90
finance 10% +$10
tech 5% +$3
world 3% −$9
politics 3% −$29
weather 2% −$6
sports 0% +$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +13.3% +2.5% 100% 57% -3.2%
≤30d 10 +9.5% -0.9% 90% 40% -3.9%
≤90d 145 -56.2% -60.4% 32% 19% -25.1%
all 284 +3.8% -6.1% 58% 40% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 40% -7.6%
10% -15.1% 30% -16.4%
15% -23.3% 22% -24.5%
20% -30.8% 17% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +65% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

619d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses165 / 119
Open positions2
Markets (closed)284 / 286
History coverage619d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 72¢ 72¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 88¢ 87¢ $44 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by June 30? Jun 19 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$2 +25%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $18 +$2 +14%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 +$2 +18%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 +$2 +27%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Jun 18 $67 +$1 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $57 +$3 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Jun 08 $9 $0 -1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9PM ET May 13 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5? May 05 $4 −$3 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 1? May 02 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 14? Apr 14 $16 +$4 +22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Apr 14 $47 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Apr 13 $17 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 13? Apr 13 $47 −$2 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 8? Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 22? Apr 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 1? Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 15? Apr 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 30? Apr 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 10? Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 3? Apr 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 30? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 8? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 11? Apr 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 6? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 4? Apr 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 6? Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 5? Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 9? Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 11? Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 12? Apr 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 30? Apr 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 17? Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 12? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on August 12? Apr 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 20? Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 25? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 10? Apr 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 6? Apr 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on August 4? Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 4? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 16? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 10? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down on January 8? Apr 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 12? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 30? Apr 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 5? Apr 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $73 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $37 3h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $8 3h
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $19 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 95¢ $10 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 81¢ $8 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 85¢ $8 15h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $8 16h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? SELL No 95¢ $5 18h
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $11 19h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? SELL No 95¢ $57 43h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 90¢ $5 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 94¢ $57 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? SELL No 96¢ $7 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $32 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $15 4d
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $7 8d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? SELL No 84¢ $8 10d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 89¢ $6 11d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY No 85¢ $9 13d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 13d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $10 16d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $5 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 39d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $9 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5? SELL No 13¢ $1 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5? BUY No 78¢ $2 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5? BUY No 78¢ $2 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.92 · official $115.92 (match) · 841 history records