Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:50:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x853e…bfc8 world 125 markets active 0h ago coverage 281d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate33%41W / 83L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$6
politics 25% +$5
other 15% +$2
sports 9% $0
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 32 +0.2% -9.3% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 83 +0.3% -9.2% 39% 1% -9.3%
all 124 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 1% -9.3%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses41 / 83
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage281d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $60 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $124 −$1 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $56 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $55 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $234 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $54 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $32 +$2 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $52 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $56 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $52 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $52 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $58 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $63 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $58 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $122 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $156 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $58 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $102 +$2 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $51 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $163 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $87 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $56 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $5 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $162 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $50 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $50 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $102 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $99 +$2 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $50 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 20 $45 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $2 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $279 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $48 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $123 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 11 $40 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $46 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $47 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $91 +$1 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $120 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $2 $0 +12%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $221 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $67 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $96 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $10 17m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $44 17m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $60 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $60 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $54 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $54 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $26 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $11 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $23 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $17 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $10 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $46 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $56 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $8 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $3 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $53 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $55 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $61 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $60 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $56 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $55 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $59 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $59 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $29 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.28 · official $54.28 (match) · 473 history records