Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:01:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
85 0x853e…abef other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$41 (+17%) realized +$47 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$33
sports 8% −$4
crypto 3% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -10.5% -19.1% 47% 42% +9.9%
≤30d 19 -10.5% -19.1% 47% 42% +9.9%
≤90d 19 -10.5% -19.1% 47% 42% +9.9%
all 19 -10.5% -19.1% 47% 42% +9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 42% +9.9%
10% -26.8% 42% -0.7%
15% -33.9% 37% -10.3%
20% -40.4% 26% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 66¢ $27 $22 −$6 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $56 +$4 +7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $23 +$33 +140%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 −$18 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -72%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 +$10 +48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -12%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Jun 20 $2 −$1 -58%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 $0 -2%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $3 +$2 +76%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 +$4 +52%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $27 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 57¢ $5 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $27 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 85¢ $27 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $56 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $23 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $19 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) SELL Netherlands 17¢ $1 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) SELL Netherlands 75¢ $5 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) BUY Netherlands 39¢ $2 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 75¢ $5 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 74¢ $5 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 41¢ $3 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 91¢ $11 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 65¢ $5 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 51¢ $4 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.53 · official $48.53 (match) · 35 history records