Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:01:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x853c…bd03 world 248 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$148,780 (+18%) realized +$152,780 · open −$4,000
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate51%117W / 114L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$3,272per market
Trades / day33.6pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$3,545now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 98d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$67,377
politics 14% +$3,816
other 10% −$18,721
economics 2% −$141
tech 1% +$9,855
crypto 1% −$2,768
sports 0% +$1,123
finance 0% −$75
culture 0% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +16.0% +4.9% 58% 50% +31.9%
≤30d 108 -10.8% -19.3% 42% 32% -4.8%
≤90d 215 -4.2% -13.4% 51% 37% -1.5%
all 231 -1.6% -11.0% 51% 38% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 38% -1.8%
10% -19.5% 29% -11.2%
15% ← realistic here -27.3% 19% -19.8%
20% -34.4% 14% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$3,335) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,437 vs −$909 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$3,545
Realized+$152,780
Unrealized−$4,000
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses117 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions17
Markets (closed)231 / 248
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$3,272
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 46¢ 31¢ $4,119 $2,764 −$1,355 (-33%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 70¢ 32¢ $579 $268 −$311 (-54%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Yes 22¢ 2¢ $2,146 $215 −$1,931 (-90%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Yes 74¢ 30¢ $337 $135 −$202 (-60%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 30¢ $23 $30 +$8 (+33%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 42¢ 12¢ $109 $30 −$79 (-73%)
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30? Yes 77¢ 34¢ $46 $20 −$26 (-57%)
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? No 19¢ 39¢ $8 $17 +$9 (+104%)
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? Yes 26¢ 34¢ $13 $16 +$4 (+28%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 21¢ 22¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+5%)
SBF released from custody in 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 79¢ 79¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Yes 42¢ 8¢ $37 $8 −$30 (-80%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $86 $4 −$81 (-95%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Yes 55¢ 31¢ $6 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 17 $341 −$164 -48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 17 $295 −$81 -27%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $1,390 +$234 +17%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 17 $171 −$19 -11%
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $284 −$132 -46%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $114 −$35 -30%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $43 +$10 +22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $192 −$11 -6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $508 +$594 +117%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $461 −$98 -21%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,128 −$294 -26%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $7,992 +$13,208 +165%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $10,000 +$4,177 +42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $10,440 +$3,207 +31%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 14 $1,964 +$252 +13%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $2,018 +$232 +12%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $633 +$1,212 +192%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2,260 −$927 -41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $3,596 +$374 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $9,121 +$3,672 +40%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $351 +$214 +61%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $272 +$235 +86%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $4,654 +$341 +7%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $60 +$22 +37%
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? Jun 09 $407 −$393 -96%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 09 $353 −$91 -26%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $64 −$30 -47%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $12,242 −$1,251 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $5,048 +$1,482 +29%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 8? Jun 07 $77 −$75 -97%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $162 +$326 +202%
Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 04 $82 +$52 +64%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 03 $1,111 −$89 -8%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 03 $129 +$26 +20%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 03 $68 $0 -0%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30? Jun 03 $106 −$72 -68%
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? Jun 03 $276 −$203 -74%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 2? Jun 02 $8 +$3 +36%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,868 −$1,198 -31%
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by December 31, 2026? May 30 $125 −$59 -47%
Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02? May 30 $2 +$1 +42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $49,365 −$11,528 -23%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $34 +$19 +57%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? May 29 $892 −$643 -72%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $3,862 −$936 -24%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 29 $3,753 −$2,996 -80%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $5,209 +$1,973 +38%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $2,445 −$2,384 -98%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 28 $4,186 −$593 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $168 14m
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL Yes 69¢ $10 15m
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 15m
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 15m
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 15m
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $328 15m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 79¢ $9 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $64 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $389 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $603 1h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL No 13¢ $26 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $159 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $351 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $151 1h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 15¢ $30 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $282 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $500 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $62 1h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 13¢ $153 2h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 13¢ $79 2h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL No 10¢ $126 2h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 28¢ $53 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $181 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $466 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $150 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $18 2h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 21¢ $13 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $137 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,544.75 · official $3,500.35 · 3500 history records