Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x853c…d32c other 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$647 (+9%) realized +$643 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%27W / 66L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,321now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,499
7 days+$1,100
14 days+$1,306
30 days+$1,262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$1,194
sports 36% +$138
crypto 1% −$51
world 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +17.6% +6.4% 38% 38% +10.0%
≤30d 93 -15.2% -23.3% 29% 29% +9.6%
≤90d 93 -15.2% -23.3% 29% 29% +9.6%
all 93 -15.2% -23.3% 29% 29% +9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 29% +9.6%
10% -30.6% 27% -0.9%
15% -37.3% 27% -10.5%
20% -43.5% 25% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$36 · ×3.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$1,321
Realized+$643
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses27 / 66
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions7
Markets (closed)93 / 101
History coverage17d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $998 $1,006 +$7 (+1%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $202 $198 −$4 (-2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $102 $100 −$2 (-2%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 64¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,012 +$628 +62%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$15 -70%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $24 +$75 +317%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $104 +$146 +140%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $103 +$797 +776%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $52 +$6 +12%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $53 −$51 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $98 −$96 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,021 +$579 +57%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $11 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $14 −$10 -70%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $25 −$24 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $110 +$60 +54%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $104 −$102 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $107 −$106 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $32 −$31 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $22 +$48 +221%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $208 +$152 +73%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $107 −$106 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $209 +$91 +43%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $11 +$39 +344%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $22 +$38 +172%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$97 +48%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $11 −$10 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $42 +$97 +231%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 +$46 +324%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $11 +$9 +89%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$68 +559%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 +$18 +142%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $11 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $104 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $206 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,008 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 14h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $99 14h
Belgium to win the second half? AND Belgium leading at halftime? BUY 31¢ $102 26h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 26h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $24 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,012 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $24 27h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 32h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $34 32h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $104 32h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $189 33h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $225 33h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $9 33h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $228 33h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $10 33h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $10 33h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $226 33h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $2 33h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 5¢ $58 33h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 14¢ $53 41h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $52 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $1,017 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $98 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,320.98 · official $1,321.02 (match) · 190 history records