Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:48:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x853b…24a0
crypto · 81 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$17 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$32 · open +$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$108
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses25 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)65 / 81
History coverage63d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 16 History 65 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$7
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 74¢ 82¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+11%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 46¢ 98¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+112%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 89¢ 100¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+12%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 81¢ 85¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+56%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 89¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+44%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+23%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 86¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 78¢ 88¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+12%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $2 $0 -18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $8 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $8 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -27%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $8 −$5 -66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 02 $8 $0 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -93%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $8 +$1 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? May 29 $4 −$1 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $8 −$1 -14%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $30 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $8 −$1 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $14 −$1 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 18 $8 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 14 $8 −$1 -19%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 10 $2 $0 -19%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 10 $6 +$10 +174%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 08 $8 −$1 -13%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? May 07 $23 −$6 -26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 07 $4 $0 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $4 −$1 -36%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 25 $2 +$2 +74%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 23 $8 −$2 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $4 −$2 -40%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $4 −$1 -26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 22 $2 $0 -27%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 13 $9 −$2 -23%
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 13 $2 $0 -3%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Apr 13 $2 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Apr 13 $2 $0 -7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Apr 13 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 11 $7 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 10 $2 +$5 +278%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 10 $9 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 10 $6 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 10 $4 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 10 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 10 $2 +$4 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 10 $4 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 10 $6 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 10 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 10 $4 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% −$8
crypto 30% −$19
politics 13% +$4
other 5% $0
finance 3% +$6
culture 2% −$2
sports 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 77¢ $8 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $8 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL No 29¢ $3 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 36¢ $4 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 89¢ $8 3d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 95¢ $8 5d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 16¢ $3 9d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 47¢ $8 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $8 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $7 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $8 16d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $8 17d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $30 19d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $8 19d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $7 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -5.7% -14.7% 40% 20% -12.1%
≤30d 16 -15.2% -23.2% 38% 6% -17.7%
≤90d 65 -14.0% -22.2% 38% 26% -18.2%
all 65 -14.0% -22.2% 38% 26% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 26% -18.2%
10% -29.6% 17% -26.0%
15% -36.4% 11% -33.2%
20% -42.7% 8% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.23 · official $108.23 (match) · 225 history records