Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x853a…942a other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$103 (-7%) realized −$101 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days−$181
14 days−$177
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$82
sports 22% −$81
crypto 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -4.1% -13.2% 60% 47% -36.5%
≤30d 40 -10.0% -18.6% 48% 42% -25.4%
≤90d 40 -10.0% -18.6% 48% 42% -25.4%
all 40 -10.0% -18.6% 48% 42% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 42% -25.4%
10% -26.4% 35% -32.5%
15% -33.5% 25% -39.0%
20% -40.0% 18% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$17 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized−$101
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage12d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $71 −$60 -84%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $21 +$5 +24%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 19 $17 +$3 +20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$7 +71%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +99%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +12%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $44 −$43 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $33 +$11 +34%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$21 -20%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $47 −$24 -52%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $40 +$32 +78%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $142 −$76 -54%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $86 +$37 +43%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$6 +15%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$11 +37%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $19 +$7 +37%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $19 −$4 -18%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$3 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$11 -86%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -65%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$4 +110%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$5 -70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -49%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$16 -79%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 +$14 +116%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -54%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 +$6 +53%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $10 $0 -5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -70%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $52 53m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 90¢ $40 55m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 59m
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $11 59m
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 52¢ $97 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 50¢ $24 3h
Brazil to win the second half? BUY Yes 81¢ $26 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $21 4d
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 4d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 82¢ $17 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 43¢ $21 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 6d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $44 6d
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $17 6d
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 6d
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $25 6d
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 6d
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $33 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $33 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.75 · official $248.75 (match) · 133 history records