Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:59:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
85 0x8539…d5a0 crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$343 (+6%) realized +$346 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate91%40W / 4L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$4
culture 25% $0
crypto 14% −$27
sports 5% +$376
economics 0% $0
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 86% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 -2.5% -11.8% 95% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 40 -2.3% -11.6% 92% 0% -10.2%
all 44 +1.4% -8.2% 91% 5% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 5% -4.4%
10% -17.0% 2% -13.6%
15% -25.0% 2% -21.9%
20% -32.4% 2% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$17 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×11.22 per $1 lost it wins $11.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$346
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses40 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage144d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 98¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 18? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 17? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3,461 −$4 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 10? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 3? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 2? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.55 on May 29? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 29? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 28? May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 26? May 27 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 26? May 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 25? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 22? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 25 $23 $0 +0%
Ducks vs. Canadiens Mar 16 $295 +$376 +127%
Kings vs. 76ers Mar 04 $2 $0 +22%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 04 $1,568 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on January 29? Jan 29 $23 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 4d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $31 4d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $11 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 5d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $3,457 6d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $3,461 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 8d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 8d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $12 10d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 10d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $11 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 12d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $32 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $30 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $12 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $30 19d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $12 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $32 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $11 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $30 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.54 · official $43.54 (match) · 96 history records