Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
85 0x8539…01d5 crypto 130 markets active 4d ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$113 (-3%) realized −$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate65%85W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$158
other 10% +$25
sports 7% −$33
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +4.3% -5.6% 57% 49% -8.3%
≤30d 121 -0.4% -9.9% 67% 48% -13.1%
≤90d 121 -0.4% -9.9% 67% 48% -13.1%
all 130 -1.4% -10.8% 65% 48% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 48% -13.5%
10% -19.3% 32% -21.8%
15% -27.1% 24% -29.4%
20% -34.3% 18% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$16 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses85 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage227d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $20 −$6 -28%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$11 +176%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$13 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$17 +326%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 03 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 72¢ $9 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 29¢ $5 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $5 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 79¢ $10 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 99¢ $10 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 50¢ $5 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 81¢ $7 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 11¢ $1 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 52¢ $5 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $6 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 282 history records