Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:50:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8538…4d66 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$753 (-8%) realized −$753 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate90%18W / 2L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$408per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$758
crypto 24% +$3
other 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +6.1% -4.0% 100% 29% -2.4%
all 20 +1.6% -8.1% 90% 25% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 25% -17.2%
10% -16.9% 15% -25.1%
15% -24.9% 10% -32.4%
20% -32.3% 0% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$972) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$954 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$753
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses18 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage196d
Avg bet$408
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-0%)
Les Wexner charged by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 02 $46 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 02 $67 $0 +0%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $172 +$42 +24%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 14 $147 +$25 +17%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 23 $147 $0 +0%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 09 $147 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Jazz Apr 01 $147 $0 +0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner Feb 26 $2,022 −$1,875 -93%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner Feb 16 $1,375 +$647 +47%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on February 14? Feb 15 $1,373 +$1 +0%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group Stage Feb 02 $978 +$395 +40%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jan 25 $115 −$32 -28%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jan 25 $190 +$37 +20%
Big Bash League: Hobart Hurricanes vs Adelaide Strikers (Game 1) Jan 09 $972 +$1 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? Jan 02 $47 $0 +0%
Pump.fun all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $61 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 02 $74 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $315 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $420 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Les Wexner charged by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $77 1h
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $46 28d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $67 28d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Movistar KOI 80¢ $149 32d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Movistar KOI 77¢ $23 32d
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $147 44d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Weibo Gaming 100¢ $147 64d
Rockets vs. Suns BUY Rockets 100¢ $147 78d
Cavaliers vs. Jazz BUY Cavaliers 100¢ $147 87d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner SELL Anyones Legend $147 119d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 69¢ $2,022 119d
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud9 68¢ $1,375 130d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on February 14? BUY No 100¢ $1,373 133d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 71¢ $978 144d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance BUY Team WE 66¢ $40 151d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 42¢ $9 151d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 42¢ $61 151d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance BUY Team WE 48¢ $80 151d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 37¢ $40 151d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 42¢ $35 151d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 48¢ $40 151d
Big Bash League: Hobart Hurricanes vs Adelaide Strikers (Game 1) BUY Hobart Hurricanes 100¢ $972 167d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $315 181d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $74 181d
Pump.fun all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $52 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $420 195d
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $47 195d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $61 195d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.94 · official $112.94 (match) · 48 history records