Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8538…ee29 weather 681 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,493 (+8%) realized +$1,382 · open +$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate25%199W / 613L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$3,501now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 99d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$316
weather 42% −$5,807
economics 6% +$897
politics 1% −$200
tech 1% −$186
sports 1% +$16
culture 1% +$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 +19.9% +8.5% 19% 18% -14.8%
≤30d 146 +19.9% +8.5% 19% 18% -14.8%
≤90d 501 -39.0% -44.8% 18% 13% -61.0%
all 812 -4.0% -13.1% 25% 18% -49.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 18% -49.9%
10% -21.4% 15% -54.7%
15% -29.0% 13% -59.0%
20% -36.0% 12% -63.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$14 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$3,501
Realized+$1,382
Unrealized+$111
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses199 / 613
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions105
Markets (closed)812 / 681
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 105 History 812 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals No 94¢ 94¢ $890 $895 +$5 (+1%)
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? No 70¢ 76¢ $780 $850 +$70 (+9%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $265 $285 +$20 (+8%)
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 88¢ 90¢ $277 $284 +$7 (+2%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 89¢ 94¢ $224 $237 +$13 (+6%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 88¢ 81¢ $144 $134 −$10 (-7%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 74¢ 84¢ $117 $132 +$15 (+13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $132 $130 −$1 (-1%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? No 84¢ 100¢ $84 $100 +$16 (+19%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 10¢ 79¢ $12 $91 +$80 (+668%)
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $49 $52 +$3 (+5%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $43 $32 −$11 (-25%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 16¢ 36¢ $12 $29 +$17 (+135%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 70¢ 39¢ $40 $22 −$17 (-44%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 6¢ 15¢ $6 $15 +$9 (+136%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 6¢ $69 $13 −$57 (-82%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 19¢ $1 $11 +$10 (+1129%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 25¢ 96¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+280%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 15¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+896%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+792%)
Will the Republican Party hold 32 or more governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? No 100¢ 99¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 30 or 31 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? No 95¢ 96¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? No 91¢ 84¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 243 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 20? Jun 26 $0 +$2 +1586%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on March 2 Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 20? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 23? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parl Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Ma Jun 26 $1 +$1 +131%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungaria Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 20? Jun 26 $0 +$3 +597%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in March Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 21? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 15°C on March 21? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 80°F or higher on March 20? Jun 26 $1 +$2 +277%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ma Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 22 Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Seattle have between 7 and 8 inches of precipitation in March? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 19? Jun 26 $0 $0 +375%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 22? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $148-$150 on the final day of trading of Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on March 21? Jun 26 $3 −$2 -92%
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 5% and Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 20? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 4°C or below on March 21? Jun 26 $0 $0 -52%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $385-$390 on the final day of trading of th Jun 26 $1 $0 -34%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be betw Jun 26 $1 +$1 +206%
Will Meta (META) close at $610-$620 on the final day of trading of the Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jun 26 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parl Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $158-$160 on the final day of trading of Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 21? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 21 Jun 26 $1 +$4 +594%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on March 19? Jun 26 $0 $0 +386%
Will another party win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungar Jun 26 $0 +$45 +61858%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 20? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be at least 10%? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 31¢ $1,076 33m
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 30¢ $1,007 38m
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 30¢ $33 38m
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 30¢ $1 38m
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 33¢ $30 58m
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 33¢ $2 59m
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 33¢ $130 59m
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 33¢ $7 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 33¢ $10 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 33¢ $10 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 33¢ $32 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 33¢ $40 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 26¢ $52 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $286 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $2,043 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? BUY No 99¢ $99 25h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY No 94¢ $892 27h
Will Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 47d
Will Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 47d
Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2026-05-09? SELL No 91¢ $5 47d
Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes 75¢ $7 47d
Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 47d
Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2026-05-09? BUY No 80¢ $4 47d
Will Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK end in a draw? SELL No 72¢ $71 47d
Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2026-05-09? SELL No 77¢ $46 47d
Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2026-05-09? BUY No 59¢ $36 47d
Will Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $72 47d
Will Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK end in a draw? SELL No 69¢ $2 48d
Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 48d
Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2026-05-09? SELL No 60¢ $2 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,501.17 · official $3,500.20 (match) · 3500 history records