Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:22:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
85 0x8537…b98b sports 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$178 (+5%) realized +$157 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%48W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$33
14 days+$114
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$77
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +4.6% -5.4% 55% 55% -4.2%
≤30d 25 +7.6% -2.7% 56% 56% +1.2%
≤90d 91 +3.4% -6.4% 53% 53% -6.4%
all 91 +3.4% -6.4% 53% 53% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 53% -6.4%
10% -15.4% 53% -15.4%
15% -23.5% 53% -23.5%
20% -31.0% 53% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$41 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized+$157
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses48 / 43
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions2
Markets (closed)91 / 93
History coverage63d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5) Indiana Fever 52¢ 72¢ $52 $72 +$20 (+38%)
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5) Seattle Storm 52¢ 53¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-10.5) Jun 18 $53 +$47 +90%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-3.5) Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) Jun 17 $53 −$52 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 17 $54 +$46 +86%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $48 +$52 +109%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $56 +$44 +79%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $53 +$47 +90%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 13 $44 −$43 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 13 $21 −$21 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $55 +$45 +83%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-8.5) Jun 11 $52 +$48 +93%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-5.5) Jun 09 $49 +$51 +104%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 05 $38 −$75 -197%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 05 $37 −$72 -197%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $36 +$31 +86%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $35 +$33 +93%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 26 $38 −$37 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $37 +$34 +93%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 24 $37 +$37 +101%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 22 $37 +$32 +86%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 20 $37 +$32 +86%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $36 +$33 +93%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) May 16 $37 +$30 +79%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 14 $36 +$31 +86%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 12 $103 +$96 +93%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 12 $114 −$114 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 11 $112 +$105 +93%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) May 10 $42 −$42 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $76 −$4 -5%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 08 $42 +$39 +93%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 07 $43 −$43 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 07 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 06 $43 −$43 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 06 $45 +$45 +101%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 05 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 05 $43 +$42 +97%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) May 04 $43 −$43 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) May 04 $45 +$45 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5) BUY Seattle Storm 52¢ $53 1h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5) BUY Indiana Fever 52¢ $53 1h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-10.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 52¢ $53 2d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-3.5) BUY Dallas Wings 52¢ $52 2d
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) BUY New York Liberty 52¢ $53 2d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 52¢ $5 3d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 52¢ $47 3d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 48¢ $48 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $56 3d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $51 4d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 53¢ $54 4d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 47¢ $48 4d
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 49¢ $28 6d
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 49¢ $1 6d
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 49¢ $18 6d
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 49¢ $1 6d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Minnesota Lynx 43¢ $44 7d
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 21¢ $21 7d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $53 9d
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-8.5) BUY Connecticut Sun 51¢ $52 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $55 9d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-5.5) BUY Washington Mystics 49¢ $49 11d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 53¢ $36 19d
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $35 21d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Thunder 50¢ $37 22d
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $38 25d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $37 26d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Thunder 50¢ $38 27d
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $37 27d
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $38 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.00 · official $125.00 (match) · 1742 history records